Now when people say “Maths makes me sad”, no one means it more sincerely than climate scientists. But this graph does not make me sad so much as this graph scares me.
#showyourstripes
You may have seen this graph around. Maybe you didn’t know that it was a graph at all. It shows years where the global average temperature is below or above the global average temperature of pre industrial times. The years that are cooler have a blue tint, and those above it are red. The intensity of the colour shows just how much more or less it is.
This is probably one of the most famous climate models. It is featured on the front cover of Greta Thunberg’s book, “The Climate Book”, on websites and in the news.
It has a great website called “showyourstripes” where you can either select the global temperature or your local area and see how it compares. On the 21st of June, many people participate in #showyourstripesday and share the stripe graph from their region.
This is the graph for my local area of Sydney.
This graph scares me because the dark red stripes are increasingly frequent. If this graph is extrapolated out it is not looking so good for our planet. The blue years fade to a pale grey and then disappear into a sea of red, and there appears to be no sign of cooling in our future.
In my lifetime, I have never seen a blue year. Every year of my life has been hotter than the average pre industrial temperature. And every year we get a new announcement around December titled “[YEAR] The Hottest Year On Record”.
Climate Change
When it was first discovered that the climate was changing by Europeans, the British were excited. They thought that England would be like Spain in the future, and Spain famously has a much more enjoyable climate than England.
Unfortunately an increase in temperature actually means plants, including crops, will not be able to withstand the heat in the areas they used to be farmed in. It means that animals will move away from where they lived because it is too warm. It means that the ocean will warm, the water will expand, raising the waterline and drowning coastal regions. The polar icecaps will melt and take their unique ecosystems with them.
We are seeing the fastest loss of species in earths history. Faster than in the mass extinction that wiped out 90% of all life on Earth. This loss of species leaves ecosystems vulnerable, including our human ecosystem. A loss of pollinators means a loss of crops. A loss of crops means a loss of livestock. Many of the things that we enjoy will no longer be available.
This graph lines up neatly with the impacts we are seeing in our environment. It is a scary graph because it shows that our future is full of red lines unless we do something about it, and soon.
Why This Graph Scares Me
Climate change is often seen as an “alarmist” topic. insinuating that those who care about it are exaggerating the issue and scaring people into thinking it’s the end of the world. But the thing is, it IS alarming. And it is by no means the end of the world, the world will go on, but it is more of a question of what will adapt and survive.
People are already losing their homes to climate change impacts in “once in 100 year” weather events that seem to happen every few months. It is disheartening to see the efforts of our global leaders dwindling on this matter despite what this and many other climate models show. There has been a backwards step from progress, moving towards continuing to sap communities and our environment for resources.
It is not all doom and gloom. This graph scares me but it also makes me angry. It fuels my drive to do what I can to prevent further damage to our planet and our communities. There are innovations to help either reduce emissions, mitigate the impacts and efforts to limit local climate changes.
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